The Gold
Gold has always been more than just a shiny metal and for centuries it has been recognized as a store of value, a safe haven in times of instability, and a tool to preserve wealth against currency depreciation. Recently, the price of gold has managed to maintain its stability despite conflicting signals from the U.S. economy, global political developments, and shifting market expectations. In recent trading sessions, gold has remained resilient despite fluctuations in the U.S. economy and the rise in Treasury yields, mainly due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar. Typically, when the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which increases investor demand. At the same time, a cautious atmosphere dominates the markets, and global investors are paying close attention to political developments and meetings of major world leaders. With ongoing international tensions, it is natural that part of the capital flows toward safe haven assets such as gold.
The latest U.S. economic data has presented a contradictory picture. Retail sales met expectations and showed that consumers are still spending, but other data is less encouraging; consumer confidence has declined, inflation expectations have risen, and industrial production has fallen. These conditions have increased uncertainty in the market and will likely put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. A rate cut usually benefits gold, since in a low yield environment, holding gold which does not generate interest becomes more justifiable.
Despite the support gold receives from a weaker dollar, the high yields of U.S. Treasury bonds have limited its further growth. Rising yields mean higher returns on government bonds, which reduces the appeal of gold because gold does not pay interest. Now that yields have risen again, a struggle has emerged: safe haven demand and dollar weakness support gold, but high yields act as a ceiling that prevents a significant rally.
Several key events could determine the path of gold in the coming days. The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes may provide clues about policymakers’ views on the economy and the likelihood of a rate cut. Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole is being closely watched by the markets, and any reference to policy changes or inflation concerns could shape the direction of gold prices. In addition, the preliminary PMI data will shed more light on the state of U.S. business activity, and weaker readings could strengthen the case for a rate cut and shift attention back toward gold.
Regardless of economic data, gold’s traditional role as a safe haven asset remains significant. Whenever global uncertainty rises, investors turn to gold. At present, with major international meetings taking place and ongoing tensions, this safe haven demand remains strong, while American households are under pressure from rising inflation expectations; in such conditions, gold becomes increasingly attractive as a store of value.
Currently, gold is in a balanced position. On one side, dollar weakness and global uncertainty support it, while on the other side, high Treasury yields limit its substantial growth. All eyes are now on key upcoming events, from the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes to Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, which could determine the next direction. For retail investors, the main message is clear: gold continues to play its traditional role as a reliable haven in times of uncertainty. Whether you are monitoring global policies or analyzing the U.S. economy, gold remains a trustworthy tool for preserving value and managing risk, and as long as the clouds of instability overshadow the markets, this precious metal will continue to shine in the eyes of cautious investors.
The Euro
In financial markets, multiple factors always influence the movement of major currencies simultaneously. Recently, the EUR/USD pair experienced significant growth, a rise that occurred despite contradictory data from both the U.S. and Europe. Interestingly, even with the release of some positive figures from the U.S. economy, the euro managed to strengthen. The euro’s movement was not solely the result of economic data but rather a combination of political events, investor expectations, and global market sentiment. One of the most important factors was the meeting between Donald Trump, the U.S. President, and Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, in Alaska, which drew the attention of global markets. Although many analysts doubted the possibility of reaching a serious agreement, especially regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine, the very meeting itself played a significant role in shaping market psychology. Even the possibility of a partial agreement was positive news for the euro, since geopolitical stability in Europe generally boosts confidence in the eurozone economy, and some experts predicted that if peace negotiations progress, the euro could strengthen further by the end of the year.
In the U.S., economic data painted a mixed picture. July retail sales showed that consumers are still spending strongly, and an upward revision of previous months’ figures reinforced this view. At the same time, however, the consumer confidence index declined, and households expressed greater concern about inflation. This contrast strong spending but rising consumer worries left investors in a confusing situation. On the one hand, economic figures were favorable, but on the other hand, consumer sentiment signaled challenges ahead. Federal Reserve policy remains one of the key factors influencing the EUR/USD rate. Many traders expected the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates at its September meeting, and this expectation put heavy pressure on the dollar, since a rate cut generally reduces the attractiveness of a currency for global investors. When rates fall, the yield on dollar denominated assets declines, prompting investors to shift toward other currencies, including the euro. For this reason, dollar weakness was one of the main drivers of the euro’s rise.
On the other side, the eurozone economic outlook also played a role in the euro’s movement. Traders were particularly awaiting the preliminary PMI data, which provides a real time snapshot of the economy. Inflation figures in the euro area and Germany were also of great importance. If inflation shows signs of stability or improvement, the European Central Bank will have less reason to continue its expansionary policies. Halting the cycle of interest rate cuts is generally considered a supportive signal for the euro. Overall, the euro’s growth was part of a broader trend; the U.S. dollar was under pressure not only against the euro but also against a basket of major global currencies. Investor doubts about the sustainability of dollar strength especially given economic challenges and expectations of rate cuts intensified this pressure. In contrast, the euro benefited from a combination of hopes for geopolitical stability in Europe, supportive economic data, and reduced pressure for further expansionary measures by the European Central Bank, which provided a solid foundation for its growth.
Looking ahead, traders should pay attention to Federal Reserve announcements, geopolitical developments, and European economic data. Any statement or policy shift can immediately change market expectations, and additional expansionary policies will work in favor of the euro. Geopolitical developments, such as the Trump-Putin meeting, are clear examples of how politics can influence markets. Strong economic data can provide further support for the euro, while weak data would increase pressure on the European Central Bank for new stimulus measures.
The recent rise of the euro against the dollar demonstrates how complex currency movements can be. Despite strong U.S. retail sales data, the dollar came under pressure from declining consumer confidence and expectations of an interest rate cut. In contrast, the euro gained strength from geopolitical hopes, supportive economic data, and the possibility of halting expansionary policies in Europe. For traders, these conditions serve as a reminder that both the U.S. and European economies must be closely monitored. Central bank policies, political events, and consumer behavior all play a role in shaping currency trends. At present, the euro has shown remarkable resilience, and its future path will depend on the sustainability of this momentum in the face of global developments.
The Pound
This week, the forex market paid considerable attention to the British pound (GBP) against the U.S. dollar (USD). The pound managed to gain some strength after the release of fresh U.S. economic data, which presented a contradictory picture of the country’s economy. As a result of pressure on the dollar, the GBP/USD pair recovered part of its previous decline and returned to an upward trend. The latest retail sales data showed that consumers are still spending, but the pace of monthly growth has slowed, and on an annual basis, a decline indicates that consumer activity is gradually weakening. This trend suggests that households have become more cautious, turned to saving, or are being limited by concerns about the future and rising daily expenses. These data indicate that consumers are balancing between spending and saving, and this could affect economic growth, corporate profits, and Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Alongside this, U.S. industrial production in July declined slightly and came in below expectations. This drop reflects pressure on factories, whether due to weak demand or rising production costs. A decline in industrial output can lead to challenges in exports, fewer job creations, and weaker economic growth in the future. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index also recorded a weaker figure than forecast, showing that people perceive current conditions as worse than before, although their outlook for the future has slightly improved. This gap between present reality and hope for the future illustrates the fragility of economic confidence in the U.S. and highlights the uncertain and contradictory environment investors are facing.
Weak economic data strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, as the economy shows signs of slowing growth. A rate cut typically reduces the dollar’s appeal to international investors, which allowed the pound to gain strength against the dollar. Tools such as CME FedWatch indicate that markets still assign a high probability to a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting, further increasing pressure on the dollar.
The rise in GBP/USD was driven more by dollar weakness than by domestic economic strength in the U.K., although the British economy also faces challenges such as weak growth and inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, dollar weakness created an opportunity for the pound to recover part of its previous decline. The recent movement of this currency pair showed how quickly market sentiment can shift with the release of economic data. Retail sales slowed, industrial production declined, and consumer confidence weakened all factors that raised concerns about the future of the U.S. economy and put additional pressure on the dollar, which in turn allowed the pound to strengthen.
In the long term, the path of GBP/USD will continue to depend on the performance of both economies and the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. However, in the short term, dollar weakness has provided an opportunity for pound growth, and traders must carefully monitor economic data and monetary policy developments in both countries in order to anticipate the future trend of this currency pair.
The Oil
Last week, the oil market experienced price declines and significant volatility under the influence of a combination of short term and long term factors. Both WTI crude and Brent crude fell by more than 1 percent. This decline was mainly driven by increased global supply, lower cash premiums, and the end of the peak summer demand season. Rising production from the Middle East, Latin America, and Europe, along with reduced concerns about potential new U.S. sanctions on Russia, intensified supply side pressure on the market and reduced the attractiveness of spot oil compared to forward months.
In the short term, traders are awaiting the results of the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Any potential agreement to ease sanctions on Russia could increase that country’s oil supply and push prices lower, while continued conflict and lack of agreement would support prices. On the other hand, Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz remains a short term geopolitical risk and, if escalated, could drive prices into the $72-$77 range.
Forecasts indicate that in the long term, the oil market will face supply side pressure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that non-OPEC+ oil supply growth next year will be about one million barrels per day, while demand growth will be only around 700,000 barrels per day. This imbalance will lead to oversupply and downward pressure on prices. In addition, rising production in the U.S. and Canada, combined with stable OPEC+ output, has further weighed on the overall market trend.
In contrast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast that oil inventories will increase by more than two million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, and that Brent crude prices will decline to the $50-$58 range. According to the EIA forecast, U.S. oil production will decrease by about 130,000 barrels per day next year and, after reaching a record 13.57 million barrels per day in December 2025, will gradually decline.
Meanwhile, OPEC considers the oil market to be tight. OPEC’s forecast for oil demand next year has been revised slightly higher, while non-OPEC+ supply growth will be lower than previous projections. This implies higher demand for OPEC+ oil and a potential opportunity for increased production next year. However, reports show that production in some countries, such as Iraq and Russia, has been below quota, while Saudi Arabia has experienced production fluctuations, though these deviations have largely offset one another.
The oil market is simultaneously under pressure from both economic and geopolitical forces. Lower oil premiums, increased global supply, the end of peak demand season, and reduced concerns about Russian sanctions have pushed the short term trend downward. From a technical perspective, astronomical cycle analysis and quantitative algorithms suggest that in the next 5-7 trading days, there is a high probability of sharp fluctuations and false breakouts. Gann time/price analysis also points to a partial reversal window through August 25, indicating a tendency for short term consolidation in the market.
On the other hand, a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could weaken the dollar and strengthen dollar denominated oil prices. The CME FedWatch tool forecasts a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, compared to 85% last week. In addition, the release of U.S. retail sales data could serve as a signal for a short term shift in price direction.
The oil market is currently balanced between short term and long term pressures. On the one hand, geopolitical threats, a weaker dollar, and the likelihood of a rate cut provide support for oil prices. On the other hand, rising global supply, projected oversupply, and long term economic pressures keep the broader trend either downward or consolidating.
In the short term, sharp volatility and false breakouts in prices are expected, but in the long term the oil market remains under the weight of supply pressure and potential surplus. Traders should closely monitor geopolitical events, monetary policy, oil inventory levels, and production in key countries in order to optimally manage trading opportunities and risks.